United States
Oct 2025
[27/10/2025] ASEAN at the Crossroads of US–China Economic Rivalry
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Q News in the programme The Economic Bulletin and featured Marvin Lee, a geopolitical analyst and PhD researcher at the University of Manchester, discussing the expected meeting between President Donald Trump and President Xi on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit and how it could reshape regional trade dynamics. The programme explored ASEAN’s position between the two powers, Washington’s recent deals with Southeast Asian countries, and the strategic implications of China’s rare earth export restrictions and the European Union’s response.
The discussion covered prospects for stabilising US China economic ties during the summit, with both sides expected to signal restraint on tariffs, AI export controls, and rare earth frictions. It highlighted US efforts to diversify supply chains and friendshore critical minerals through new understandings with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand, and Vietnam, and assessed how ASEAN economies could benefit from investment, export growth, and foreign direct capital flows under a China plus one model. The conversation examined risks from China’s rare earth curbs for global supply chains, EU moves to engage Beijing on rare earth stability, recycling, and green mining, and policy options for ASEAN governments to build resilience amid trade uncertainty. It underscored ASEAN’s potential gains from competition while recognising exposure to supply shocks in high tech industries.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that the summit is a strategic inflection point, and ASEAN should function as a bridge rather than a battleground, consistent with a Chinese emphasis on harmony without uniformity. He argues that both Washington and Beijing have incentives to stabilise ties, but the United States is actively courting Southeast Asia to diversify manufacturing and critical mineral sourcing, while China retains asymmetric leverage through rare earth processing and regional connectivity. He contends that EU involvement could press China toward steadier export regimes and technical cooperation, and that ASEAN economies will benefit from competing suitors if they maintain strategic neutrality and upgrade local capabilities. Drawing on a Chinese strategic lens, he frames calm signalling, supply chain diversification, and pragmatic engagement as the route to reduce escalation risks, concluding that measured optimism is warranted if leader level dialogue produces credible steps on trade and critical inputs.
Sept 2025
[29/09/2025] China’s K visa and industrial upgrading as pillars of long-term tech resilience
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Q News in the programme The Economic Bulletin and featured Marvin Lee, a geopolitical analyst and PhD researcher at the University of Manchester, discussing China’s new K visa for foreign STEM talent and its non-ferrous metals industry plan, and how both initiatives support technological self-sufficiency and strategic resilience.
The discussion covered the K visa’s role in widening pipelines for foreign researchers in AI, semiconductors, new energy, and advanced materials, positioning it as a structural tool rather than mere symbolism. It highlighted target demographics such as early-career master’s and PhD graduates and applied researchers from Asia, the potential brain-circulation effects amid higher U.S. visa costs, and how easier work entry can shorten team formation and ease international collaboration. It also addressed China’s metals plan focusing on recycled supply, ultra-high-purity refining, and new rare-earth applications for integrated circuits and power electronics, framing it as simultaneously a resource-security, environmental, and de-risking strategy that reduces exposure to external choke points and builds systemic resilience.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that the K visa and the metals plan are complementary pillars of a long-term strategy to achieve technological sovereignty, advancing dual-circulation goals and closing bottlenecks in critical inputs and talent. He argues in an analytical and strategic tone that even small inflows of top global researchers can shift capabilities in EDA tools, advanced packaging, and materials, while recycling targets and ultra-purity breakthroughs anchor upstream strength for downstream performance. Drawing on Chinese philosophical themes of pragmatic statecraft and cultivating capability before contestation, he suggests that quiet institution-building and talent attraction embody a Confucian preference for order and steady improvement, while flexible openness to global talent alongside indigenous innovation positions China to compete confidently in the tech race over the coming decades.
July 2025
[04/07/2025] US–Vietnam Tariff Deal and Shifts in Asian Trade Dynamics
Benny Kwok
The interview aired on Q News and featured economist Benny Kwok from Hong Kong discussing the new US tariff measures on Vietnam and their broader implications for global trade, particularly in relation to China and Southeast Asia. The programme examined how the 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports and the stricter 40% tariff on trans-shipped Chinese goods routed through Vietnam reflect Washington’s evolving trade strategy.
The discussion addressed concerns over Vietnam’s export-driven economy, the potential redirection of Chinese manufacturing and capital to avoid rising tariffs, and the likelihood that this bilateral deal could serve as a template for future US negotiations with other Asian states. The conversation also examined China’s reactions, including its view that such agreements may harm the interests of third parties, and explored how the US–Vietnam deal fits into the broader restructuring of globalisation led by the two major powers. The interview further considered Europe’s developing ties with China and how Europe’s economic interests complicate its alignment within US–China competition.
Benny Kwok’s viewpoint is that the US–Vietnam agreement delivers an expected outcome, with Washington using it as a clear example of its new tariff doctrine—particularly the high 40% trans-shipment tariff aimed at preventing Chinese goods from circumventing US trade restrictions. He argued that this pressure will likely cause Chinese manufacturers to relocate production, not only within Southeast Asia but increasingly toward Europe and other regions to avoid punitive costs. Kwok explained that the United States is intentionally establishing a model trade deal to encourage other Asian nations to accept similar terms, thereby tightening enforcement against tariff evasion. He noted that both the US and China are quietly reshaping globalisation, each seeking to mould trade structures in ways that favour their interests while avoiding open conflict with allies. He concluded that the trans-shipment provisions represent a direct signal to developing countries aligned with China, marking Vietnam as the first test case in a broader strategy that will shape supply chains and geopolitical alignments in the coming years.
[07/07/2025] US Tariff Deadlines and Global Economic Pressures
Benny Kwok
The interview aired on an Arabic news channel and featured Benny Kwok from Hong Kong, an international relations expert, and Dr. Domenico Antonio Di Giorgio from Rome, a specialist in economic affairs, discussing the implications of US President Donald Trump’s deadline to activate new customs tariffs starting on 1 August. The programme examined the broader geopolitical and economic effects of the renewed tariff measures on global trade and on the responses of major economies.
The discussion explored how various countries might react to the activation of US tariffs and the strategic motivations behind Washington’s pressure campaign. The dialogue highlighted existing US trade agreements with the United Kingdom, China and Vietnam, the potential ripple effects on shipping, supply chains and production lines linked to China, and the likelihood that the White House seeks further compliance from South Asian countries and the European Union. It also examined the US Treasury’s expectation of collecting USD 300 billion in tariff revenue, with Dr. Di Giorgio arguing that such income is insufficient to offset the fiscal deficits created by recent tax cuts, raising concerns over growing public debt and the sustainability of US economic policy.
Benny Kwok’s viewpoint is that President Trump is using existing trade agreements as a model that he expects other countries to follow, positioning the United States as a standard-setter in global trade relations. He noted that the US is closely monitoring logistics regulations, shipping activities, and Chinese-linked supply chains, using these as leverage points. Kwok suggested that the White House may require additional time to complete agreements with Southeast Asian states and the EU, proposing that Trump could extend the deadline by two to three weeks to pressure countries into alignment with US expectations. He concluded that the current deadline appears to be Trump’s final attempt to compel states to comply with American conditions, signalling a decisive phase in the administration’s tariff strategy.
[28/07/2025] China’s Rising Fiscal Deficit and Strategic Economic Adjustments
Benny Kwok
The interview aired on Al Qahera Al Ikhbariya (Cairo News) in the programme “المراقب” (Al-Muraqib / The Monitor) and featured Benny Kwok, an international politics and policy expert from Hong Kong, alongside Professor Murad Kawashi, an Algerian economist and academic. The discussion focused on the unprecedented increase in China’s public budget deficit, examining its underlying causes, links to trade tensions with the United States and Europe, and Beijing’s fiscal and industrial strategies in response to slowing growth and global economic headwinds.
The guests explained that China’s record fiscal deficit reflects a combination of rising government spending and weakening revenues. Professor Kawashi highlighted several structural factors: escalating trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States and European Union, particularly on Chinese exports such as cars and electric vehicles; the prolonged economic impact of Covid-19; high domestic debt levels; and a sharp slowdown in the property sector, including shrinking revenues from land sales. He noted that, despite these pressures, China still recorded growth above 5% in the first half of the year, which he described as strong compared with major European economies experiencing near-zero growth. The discussion then turned to increased government spending (up about 9%), declining tax and land revenues, and the risk–reward balance of China’s fiscal stimulus: if it successfully boosts investment, demand, and consumption, it could ease the deficit burden; if not, it could deepen fiscal strains. The programme also pointed to an upcoming high-level economic policy meeting in Beijing as a key venue to reassess strategy, including responses to US tariffs and global demand weakness.
Benny Kwok’s viewpoint is that China’s growing deficit is closely tied to deliberate policy choices aimed at sustaining growth and strategic competitiveness, rather than simply a sign of fiscal mismanagement. He identified four main reasons behind the widening gap, emphasising the decline in land-related tax revenues, which traditionally provided substantial income for Chinese authorities, and the heavy financial support Beijing is directing towards exports and advanced sectors, especially artificial intelligence and AI-related industries, often involving subsidies worth millions of dollars. In his analysis, these policies are part of China’s effort to strengthen key high-tech and export-oriented industries in the face of intense global economic competition, particularly with the United States. Kwok argued that fiscal stimulus and pumped liquidity are necessary to energise markets and multiple sectors, and that the core challenge for Beijing is to ensure these measures translate into profitable, sustainable growth so that they eventually reduce, rather than worsen, the deficit. Looking ahead to the upcoming policy meeting in Beijing, he expects comprehensive discussions on long- and short-term economic strategies, including how to mitigate the impact of US tariffs on China and wider Asia, stabilise domestic demand, and guide China’s recovery while easing external pressures on its economy.
June 2025
[03/06/2025] Geneva truce under strain as US and China trade accusations
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Q News in the programme In Depth and featured Peter Tanuz and Marvin Lee, discussing whether the recent Geneva truce between the United States and China can hold amid renewed disputes over rare earths, export controls, and visas. The programme explored the fragile 90 day negotiation window, market reactions to policy signals, and the broader implications for global supply chains and economic stability.
The discussion covered fresh U.S. accusations that Beijing is slow rolling rare earth exports and maintaining non tariff barriers and China’s counterclaim that Washington is undermining the truce through new export controls on advanced chips and student visa restrictions. It highlighted deepening mistrust only weeks after a landmark pause in tariffs, the prospect of leader level diplomacy to rescue talks, and how markets interpret the odds of a deal. Tanuz stressed incentives on both sides to reach an agreement given enormous bilateral trade, citing steady U.S. equities as a sign of optimism, while also noting potential spillovers to emerging markets. Additional themes included the centrality of technology and minerals to the dispute, the interplay between trade and security concerns, and how Asian supply chains are diversifying through China plus one while remaining anchored to Chinese components and ecosystems.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that Beijing holds significant asymmetric leverage and is prepared for a protracted contest, arguing that control over critical inputs such as rare earths and related materials, the drive for technological sovereignty under initiatives like Made in China 2025, and deeper trade with Belt and Road partners give China negotiating power without direct confrontation. He frames this through a Chinese philosophical lens, invoking Sun Tzu’s principle of subduing the adversary without fighting and Confucian emphasis on quiet resolve coupled with decisive action, to suggest China will pair legal and regulatory countermeasures with domestic substitution and alliance building beyond the West, including BRICS expansion. Lee is pessimistic about a quick breakthrough before the 90 day window closes, contending that sovereignty is non negotiable and economic pressure will not force political concessions, while financial openness, visa facilitation, and green tech leadership are presented as longer term tools to reassure partners and sustain China’s position.
May 2025
[02/05/2025] US alliances under strain and China’s strategic recalibration
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Q News in the programme In Depth and featured Dr. P L D Silva and Marvin Lee, discussing the impact of President Donald Trump’s America First policy on traditional alliances and global power balances. The programme explored how tariff escalations, defense ultimatums, and unilateral moves have unsettled European and Asian partners, and examined the resulting realignments toward a more multipolar order.
The discussion covered the economic and security ripple effects of renewed US tariffs on China, including supply chain disruptions, higher costs for consumers, and declining Chinese exports to the United States, while Beijing accelerates diversification and innovation. It highlighted European anxiety over US commitments to NATO and moves to bolster autonomous defense and procurement, alongside greater openness to cooperation with China in green tech and supply chains. Additional themes included strained transatlantic diplomacy, Japan and South Korea facing increased burden sharing, Iran leveraging sanctions pressure to deepen ties with Asian partners, and the broader shift as allies hedge against uncertain US reliability, reinforcing a more competitive and diversified international landscape.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that China has adapted to US pressure by pivoting to internal strength and outward connectivity, combining dual circulation to boost domestic demand and self sufficiency, industrial upgrading under Made in China 2025, and the pursuit of new quality productive forces in advanced technologies such as AI, semiconductors, robotics, and new energy vehicles. He frames the moment through a Chinese philosophical lens, invoking Sun Tzu to argue that China prefers winning without fighting, avoiding what is strong and striking where the terrain favors it, which in practice means expanding overland corridors and Belt and Road partnerships to reduce maritime vulnerabilities in the first island chain and around Taiwan, a core and unfinished issue from Beijing’s perspective. Strategically, Lee contends that deeper integration with Central Asia, the Middle East, and Europe, including energy security arrangements and rail and digital connectivity, is designed to counter encirclement, multiply options, and stabilize China’s rise, aligning with a Confucian preference for order, harmony, and pragmatic cooperation. He concludes that economic resilience and diversified partnerships will sustain China’s influence even as tariffs persist, while win win collaboration offers a path to reduce escalation risks and maintain regional stability.
[26/05/2025] ASEAN integration, East Timor’s bid, and managing US tariffs and maritime tensions
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on an unspecified news channel and featured the programme host and Marvin Lee, discussing the ASEAN summit’s focus on cooperation, economic integration, and the pending request by East Timor to join the bloc. The programme explored how settling East Timor’s accession could shape regional balance in Southeast Asia and examined ASEAN’s responses to external trade pressures and maritime frictions.
The discussion covered the strategic significance of East Timor’s membership for regional equilibrium between Australia, Southeast Asia, and China, noting Beijing’s growing presence through investment and dialogue linked to the Belt and Road. It also addressed how ASEAN economies are navigating US tariffs and global supply chain shifts, with Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand leveraging relocation of manufacturing while diversifying markets to avoid overdependence on any single power. The conversation highlighted ASEAN’s flexible diplomacy to remain neutral between the United States and China, the bloc’s uneven economic capacities and political constraints, including Myanmar’s crisis, and efforts to deepen intra regional cooperation through broader economic frameworks and Pacific coordination. Finally, it examined South China Sea sensitivities and calls for clearer maritime arrangements or a code of conduct, alongside varying national approaches from more assertive stances to China aligned positions.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that resolving East Timor’s accession is important for both regional integration and strategic balance, because its position intersects Australian interests, ASEAN centrality, and China’s expanding footprint. He argues that ASEAN should pursue a multi layered response to US tariffs, combining diversification of export markets, active negotiation with Washington, and incremental supply chain reconfiguration, while maintaining neutrality and avoiding binary alignment. Drawing on Chinese philosophical references and the Belt and Road logic of connectivity, he frames investment, infrastructure, and quiet diplomacy as tools to reduce tensions and deliver development gains, consistent with a Confucian preference for harmony and stability over confrontation. On the South China Sea, he recognizes persistent sensitivities and the need for clearer, mutually accepted maritime rules, suggesting that practical cooperation and balanced engagement can manage disputes while safeguarding ASEAN interests.
[29/05/2025] US Visa Restrictions on Chinese Students and Beijing’s Strategic Response
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Asharq News and featured Dr Marvin Lee, a researcher on Chinese affairs at the University of Manchester, alongside Joseph Bosco, former China desk officer at the US Department of Defense. The discussion addressed Washington’s decision to suspend and review visas for Chinese students—particularly those linked to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in sensitive scientific fields—and Beijing’s firm opposition to the move. The programme examined the broader implications for US–China relations, higher education, and technological competition.
The discussion outlined that the US administration, led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, intends to tighten visa scrutiny for Chinese nationals pursuing studies in areas such as artificial intelligence, physics, and advanced technology, citing national security concerns. Dr Lee noted that China swiftly condemned the decision as a dangerous act that violates human rights and deepens the new Cold War atmosphere. He emphasised that over 290,000 Chinese students were enrolled in US universities in 2023, making up 27 percent of all international students and contributing millions of dollars to the US economy through tuition fees, rent, and travel spending.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that China views this measure not as a security safeguard but as an ideological and economic provocation. He argued that the move undermines academic exchange and mutual understanding, framing it as part of a broader pattern of US containment. From a Chinese philosophical perspective, he explained, Beijing believes in “welcoming friends from near and far” while protecting its national interests through calm and strategic restraint. Rather than retaliating by restricting American students or professionals, Lee predicted that China will respond by enhancing domestic research capacity and expanding academic collaboration through Hong Kong and Belt and Road partner countries. He further linked the policy to China’s national goal for 2025—to become a leading global technological power—and stated that the country is already launching competitive programs and offering incentives to attract international researchers. Concluding his remarks, Lee asserted that China’s approach will remain pragmatic: transforming external pressure into an opportunity to strengthen its innovation ecosystem and global influence.
[30/05/2025] China’s diversification strategy and pursuit of global economic resilience
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Q News in the programme The Economic Bulletin and featured Marvin Lee, a PhD researcher at the University of Manchester, discussing China’s recent diplomatic and economic moves to deepen ties with the Pacific Islands, ASEAN, and the GCC. The programme explored whether these actions mark a strategic shift away from reliance on the US-led global order and examined how Beijing is building alternative trade routes, partnerships, and technological capacities to mitigate American economic pressures.
The discussion covered China’s multipronged approach to expanding its influence beyond traditional Western frameworks, emphasizing its growing engagement with Southeast Asia, the Middle East, and the Pacific as part of a long-term hedging strategy against US containment policies. It highlighted China’s investment in critical infrastructure such as the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor, the China–Myanmar gas pipeline, and rail networks across Central Asia and Afghanistan, designed to bypass maritime choke points like the Strait of Malacca. The conversation also addressed China’s rare earth export controls and its 60 percent share of global processing capacity, noting that these measures both safeguard national interests and serve as strategic leverage in negotiations. Finally, it examined China’s efforts to position itself as a global leader in green and digital innovation, citing electric vehicle exports, renewable technologies, and visible international sponsorships such as BYD’s partnership with Euro 2024.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that China is deliberately constructing a parallel sphere of economic and technological resilience, underpinned by a long-term vision to secure autonomy amid U.S.-led containment. He explains that Beijing’s partnerships with ASEAN, the GCC, and Pacific states are not merely commercial but strategic, serving to diversify energy supplies, secure trade corridors, and extend influence across emerging markets. Lee underscores that rare earth controls function as a form of strategic deterrence and negotiation leverage, while green technology cooperation with non-Western partners reflects a shift toward sustainable leadership distinct from Western models. Invoking classical Chinese strategic thought, he portrays this diversification as a form of long-term “economic chess,” balancing adaptation and self-strengthening, concluding that China’s technological innovation and environmental initiatives give it an enduring upper hand in shaping a more multipolar global order.
[30/05/2025] Prospects for a new US China trade agreement amid strategic rivalry
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on an Arabic-language news channel and featured the programme host and Marvin Lee, discussing whether the United States and China could reach a new trade agreement or whether the ongoing trade war is aimed at restraining Beijing’s economic rise and influence in the emerging global order. The programme explored the broader context of geopolitical competition, technology restrictions, and national security concerns shaping the future of bilateral economic relations.
The discussion covered the dual dimensions of the rivalry, with economic competition intertwined with strategic and technological dominance, particularly in fields such as artificial intelligence and advanced industries. It highlighted the collapse of mutual trust following restrictions on visas, technology transfers, and market access, noting that the dispute extends beyond tariffs into governance, security, and global leadership questions. The conversation also examined how the trade war affects innovation ecosystems, supply chains, and global economic stability, and whether constructive dialogue could reopen pathways for cooperation.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that while a new trade agreement remains possible, it depends on the restoration of positive dialogue and mutual confidence, as both China and the United States possess largely independent and resilient economies. He argues that trade cooperation can only advance if both sides address national security sensitivities and geopolitical mistrust, emphasizing that the current confrontation is not purely economic but a struggle over who shapes the new world system. Lee explains that the trade war reflects a deeper contest between economic interdependence and strategic containment, linking it to technological sovereignty and global governance debates. He concludes that only through balanced, pragmatic engagement can both powers move from confrontation to collaboration, consistent with a Chinese philosophical view that stability and dialogue are prerequisites for harmony and long-term prosperity.
APRIL 2025
[10/04/2025] China’s Strategic Messaging and Internal Debate Over US Tariff Pressures
Benny Kwok
The interview aired on an Arabic news channel and featured Benny Kwok, a political economy researcher from Hong Kong, discussing Chinese President Xi Jinping’s recent remarks comparing China’s economy to a “vast ocean” that cannot be shaken by storms. The programme examined whether this rhetoric reflects political messaging or an accurate assessment of China’s economic resilience amid escalating tensions with the United States.
The discussion provided context on the intensifying tariff confrontation between China and the United States and explored how Beijing is managing both external pressure and internal policymaking debates. The presenter highlighted Xi Jinping’s metaphor and questioned whether it expresses confidence or masks underlying economic vulnerabilities. The conversation underscored the presence of multiple competing voices within China, including hard-line positions from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and more moderate tones from the State Council, reflecting diverging assessments of how to respond to Washington’s actions.
Benny Kwok’s viewpoint is that China’s public messaging reveals internal divisions over how to handle US tariff escalation, with Beijing struggling to balance firmness with economic pragmatism. He explained that senior officials in Beijing—ranging from the Foreign Ministry to the State Council—have expressed different tones, some advocating a tough response while others acknowledge the need for dialogue with Washington. Kwok argued that China is in a strategically difficult position: retaliation risks harming its already pressured economy, while concessions risk undermining the political legitimacy of the Chinese leadership. He noted that, behind closed doors, Chinese officials are likely seeking limited, face-saving compromises, not full market opening, which he described as “impossible” under current circumstances. Instead, China may offer small, symbolic concessions, such as selective access for US-linked firms in Hong Kong or administrative flexibility resembling earlier precedents. Kwok concluded that these modest steps would aim to soften US perceptions temporarily while Beijing navigates a highly constrained and politically sensitive environment.
[10/04/2025] US–China Tariff Escalation and Strategic Pressures on Global Trade
[22/04/2025] Central Asia’s new great game and China’s evolving strategy
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on Q News in the programme In-Depth and featured Ginger Chapman and Marvin Lee, discussing how the United States, China, and Russia are competing for influence in Central Asia amid shifting global dynamics. The programme explored Central Asia’s strategic position, energy resources, and transport corridors, and examined China’s recalibrated regional strategy, Russia’s constrained leverage following the Ukraine crisis, and Washington’s efforts to reengage the region while managing broader tensions in the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East.
The discussion covered the interplay between China’s Belt and Road infrastructure push, Russia’s historical and security ties, and U.S. aims to promote sovereignty, stability, and connectivity, highlighting how Central Asian states pursue multi-vector policies to expand autonomy. It also addressed tariffs, trade realignments, and sanctions, the fragility of energy flows through chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, and competing narratives about “debt traps,” technology integration, and security cooperation through organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Chapman argued that the United States has sent mixed signals and is racing to catch up while China and Russia apply longer-term strategies, pointing to BRICS expansion, the International North–South Transport Corridor, and evolving tariff policies. The conversation underscored mounting strategic anxiety around the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, heightened tensions in Northeast Asia, and the region’s leaders actively shaping outcomes rather than serving as passive arenas of competition.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that China has shifted from a low-profile economic actor to a strategic, multi-dimensional partner in Central Asia, combining development finance, security cooperation, and soft-power engagement to build a community with a shared future. He frames China’s approach through a Chinese philosophical lens, repeatedly invoking Sun Tzu’s Art of War to stress “winning without fighting” and that opportunities multiply as they are seized, arguing that connectivity and commerce, not confrontation, are China’s preferred tools. He cites financing commitments reportedly worth billions of yuan, SCO-based counterterrorism and security coordination, and everyday markers of soft power such as the popularity of Chinese brands as evidence of growing influence. Strategically, Lee links westward corridors under the Belt and Road to mitigating the vulnerability posed by the first island chain and potential maritime blockages near Taiwan, which he describes as a core, unfinished issue from China’s perspective. He characterizes Beijing’s response to the evolving U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy as counter-encirclement through rail, energy, and digital integration, emphasizes win-win cooperation with Central Asian states, and concludes that economic integration and overland resilience will secure China’s influence while reducing escalation risks, aligning with a Confucian preference for order, stability, and harmonious relations.
DEC 2024
[29/12/2025] US China relations under Biden and prospects under Trump
Marvin Lee
The interview aired on an Arabic-language news channel and featured the programme host and Marvin Lee, discussing the evolution of United States–China relations during President Joe Biden’s four years and expectations for a new Donald Trump policy approach. The programme explored how Washington balanced hard and soft tactics, the impact of global conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and technology and climate issues shaping the bilateral agenda.
The discussion covered the Biden administration’s mix of coercive and conciliatory measures toward China, with the United States seeking leverage to influence wider conflicts while tightening restrictions on Chinese technology, especially semiconductors. It highlighted closer U.S. coordination with allies such as Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, and other Western partners to rebalance China’s regional influence, alongside debate over climate cooperation and strategic competition. The conversation also addressed Washington’s view of China as a systemic threat, the resulting diplomatic frictions, and how a renewed Trump agenda might shift tactics on technology and regional policy.
Marvin Lee’s viewpoint is that Biden’s term was defined by many unexpected developments, with Washington employing both hard-line and guiding approaches toward Beijing to gain strategic advantage amid wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. He argues that the United States underappreciated the extent of China’s growing dominance, leaving elements of Beijing’s plans and bilateral frameworks unresolved, and prompting Washington to work more closely with Western allies to counterbalance Chinese influence. Lee underscores that technology controls, particularly on semiconductors, became a central instrument because U.S. policymakers perceive China as a direct strategic threat, a stance that intensified tensions. He concludes that a Trump policy would likely pursue a different and more pointed course on semiconductors and other regional issues, maintaining competitive pressure even as both sides explore limited areas of cooperation such as climate.
AUG 2023
[11/08/2025] Biden’s “Time Bomb” Warning and the Future of China’s Economic Rise
Benny Kwok
The interview aired on an Arabic news channel and featured Peter Tanous, an economic expert speaking from Washington, and Benny Kwok, a political economy expert joining from Hong Kong, discussing US President Joe Biden’s description of the Chinese economy as a “time bomb” and the implications of China’s recent weak economic data. The programme examined the contrast between a US economy that is recovering and fighting inflation and a Chinese economy struggling with deflation, slowing growth, record youth unemployment, and a fragile property sector, and considered what this means for global economic leadership and US–China competition.
The discussion outlined how China’s post-COVID recovery has disappointed expectations, with falling exports, negative inflation, and urban youth unemployment reaching around 20%, signalling a faltering rebound. Tanous argued that one cause of weaker Chinese exports is a shift in US and global consumption from goods purchased during lockdowns to services such as travel, reducing demand for Chinese manufactured products. He stressed that the United States does not seek to block China’s overall economic growth, but is focused on security-driven restrictions in high-tech sectors, particularly electronics and defence-related technologies. The conversation also addressed structural weaknesses in China’s property market, rising unpaid loans, and Western concerns over Chinese overseas lending and the Belt and Road Initiative, where some recipient countries are struggling to repay debts. These trends were linked to the broader rethinking of supply chains, with Western firms considering diversification away from China toward India and other parts of South and Southeast Asia.
Benny Kwok’s viewpoint is that Biden is partly correct in saying the US still has leverage over China’s economic trajectory, especially through controls on advanced technology and key inputs, yet he emphasised that China maintains a long-term strategic vision to 2050 to emerge as a new dominant power. Kwok argued that three years of strict COVID lockdowns in China severely damaged Western investor confidence, accelerating debates on “de-risking” and encouraging Western companies to diversify production and supply chains out of China. He highlighted that Beijing now seeks to broaden its investment and financing base beyond the United States and Europe, turning more actively to the Middle East, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, both as sources of capital and as partners looking to invest in the world’s second-largest economy. In his assessment, China is attempting to reduce its dependence on the US, Japan and Western partners, while positioning itself as an attractive destination for Middle Eastern capital and a key node in a more multipolar financial landscape, using new economic relationships to support its growth despite mounting structural and geopolitical headwinds.
JUNE 2023
[23/06/2023] Vietnam Between Washington and Beijing in a Growing Strategic Rivalry
Benny Kwok
The interview aired on an Arabic-language news programme “File al-Yawm / File of the Day” from Cairo and featured Benny Kwok, an international relations expert from Hong Kong, alongside Alberto Gabrielli, a journalist specialising in the Vietnamese economy, Dr. Sayed Mekkawy Zaki, a professor of international relations from Cairo, and Craig Kaf from Chicago, a researcher in US foreign affairs. The discussion focused on Vietnam’s position between the United States and China, in light of the arrival of a US aircraft carrier in Vietnam, Hanoi’s disputes with Beijing in the South China Sea, and Vietnam’s parallel deepening of strategic and economic ties with both Washington and Beijing, including participation in China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The overall discussion examined how intensifying US–China rivalry is reshaping the geopolitical map of Southeast Asia, with Vietnam emerging as a key arena. Guests highlighted the symbolic and strategic significance of the US aircraft carrier visit, coinciding with the 10th anniversary of the US–Vietnam comprehensive partnership, and contrasted it with Vietnam’s concurrent efforts to upgrade ties with China, including high-level visits and strong trade interdependence. The debate explored whether Vietnam is being pushed to “choose sides” or still able to balance between security reliance on the United States and economic dependence on China. Broader themes included US attempts to contain Chinese influence in Southeast Asia and Latin America, China’s response through Belt and Road projects and loans, fears of a potential conflict in the South China Sea, and the idea that the region is entering a new “cold war” environment where states seek to avoid becoming another “Ukraine” in Asia.
Benny Kwok’s viewpoint is that Vietnam is strategically tilting toward Washington in security and defence, while still seeking to benefit from Chinese economic power, and that this dual-track approach is central to its foreign policy. He argued that the historical tensions and territorial disputes between China and Vietnam, especially in the South China Sea, create space for the United States to expand its naval presence and defence cooperation with Hanoi as a counterweight to Beijing. At the same time, Kwok stressed that China is actively using economic and political tools—notably Belt and Road investments and closer supply-chain integration—to keep Vietnam and other Southeast Asian states from aligning too closely with Washington. He framed Vietnam as a pragmatic balancer: welcoming more frequent US naval visits and security support to hedge against China, while also remaining open to deepening economic ties with Beijing and maintaining a working relationship with its powerful neighbour. Strategically, Kwok concluded that Vietnam is unlikely to become a direct battlefield or “hot” front between the US and China; instead, it will function as a competitive arena where both powers court Hanoi for political support, market access and regional influence, with Vietnam using this competition to maximise its autonomy and long-term national interest.